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IMF to investigate factors behind oil price surge Print E-mail
Saturday, 21 June 2008

By a Staff Reporter

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will prepare an analysis of the real and financial factors behind the recent surge in oil and commodity prices, their volatility, and the effects on the global economy, Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said last week.

 

Responding to a call by the Group of Eight (G8) major industrial nations Strauss-Kahn said that as part of the analysis, the IMF would look into the possible role of financial market speculation in the recent price hikes.

"How important it is and what kind of influence it has on the market and future is something we have to investigate," he said after he attended the June 13-14 meeting in Osaka, Japan.

Strauss-Kahn said it was not clear if speculators were a factor, but that some G8 ministers wanted this looked into. Separately, he said, that he expected the slowdown in the world economy to rein in oil prices that have touched record highs.

The impact of high energy and food costs on global growth was the main theme of talks, which Strauss-Kahn also attended, between finance ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in Osaka.

The June meeting was in preparation for a July G8 summit that will also be held in Japan. The meeting was clouded by continued fallout from the U.S. sub-prime crisis, the impact of high commodity and fuel prices on an already slowing world economy, and the renewed risk of rising inflation in several countries.

Strauss-Kahn said that despite the better than expected first quarter performance of some industrialized countries, particularly the United States, he still expected a prolonged slowdown in the global economy. "Even if the slowdown is not going to be deep, it is going to be protracted," the managing director said.

The G8 communiqué called on the IMF and the International Energy Agency "to work together, with appropriate national authorities, in carrying out further analysis of real and financial factors behind the recent surge in oil and commodity prices, their volatility, and the effects on the global economy, and report back at the next Annual Meetings."

The IMF and the World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington this October.

The G8 also urged oil-producing nations to step up output to curb the feverish rise in crude prices, which has stoked protests worldwide over rising fuel costs.

Strauss-Kahn said the IMF now had a role to play in helping to better understand the interlocking workings of the global economy following the boom in commodities, adding the past consensus on the issue had become "outdated."

"A lot of analysis has to be done to rebuild an understanding of the economic environment in which we are," he said.
 
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