Ethiopian Reporter - English Version - PM Meles reduced the economy's problem from hypertension to a common cold

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PM Meles reduced the economy's problem from hypertension to a common cold

Saturday, 24 May 2008

Lidetu Ayalew, EDUP-Medhin chairman

Lidetu Ayalew is chairman of the Ethiopia Democratic Unity Party (EDUP-Medhin). His party was the only opposition party which supported the government decision to send troops to Somalia in December, 2006.
On Wednesday, PM Meles appreciated EDUP's stand on Somalia before starting answering questions about Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea and the state of the economy during the "question time" session in parliament.

Lidetu spoke to senior reporter Bruck Shewareged as regards his reaction to what the PM said. Excerpts:

What was your reaction to Wednesday's "question time" with the prime minister in parliament?

I would like to raise two points as regards what the PM said on Wednesday. The fact that the prime minister for the first time considered an opposition party's stand on a national issue as a positive one is something unprecedented, especially for me. This kind of political culture must develop. We, in the opposition camp, ought to develop this culture, too. I'm happy with the PM's position.

The other point I want to raise is the "question time" session with the PM in parliament which took place two or three times so far. But Wednesday's session was different in that there were improvements in the procedure.

How is that?

For instance, in previous time hour sessions, we present our questions in writing to the Speaker of the House in advance, which in turn will be submitted to the PM. The PM then comes to parliament and answers those questions. But on Wednesday, we were allowed to read the questions in parliament directly to the PM. This is something new.

The other improvement is that in the past, after the PM answered the questions that were presented to him, the session would be over. We wouldn't be allowed to demand clarification. Now, we were able to solicit clarifications on the questions which we felt the PM did not address adequately. This is also something new.

You specifically asked the prime minister about Ethiopia's exit strategy from Somalia. Are you satisfied with his answer?

He answered the question to a certain extent. But he did not give an entirely satisfactory answer. I cannot say he gave totally the correct answer. I can't say we got an unambiguous answer. If you remember, at the beginning when the motion to enter Somalia was introduced in parliament, we had reservations about one thing. And that is, when we accomplished our mission in Somalia, we shouldn't stay in Somalia any longer. And if the need arises for our forces to stay there, we should discuss the reason openly in parliament and vote on it.

At the time, it was said our forces would leave Somalia in weeks, then in months and so on. We said in parliament in the presence of the prime minister that this must not be the way things should go on. If there is a convincing reason to prolong the presence of our troops in Somalia, be it for the sake of stability in the region or any other reason, that reason must be presented to parliament, and we must make decisions after being convinced. Unfortunately, the ruling party considers itself as the only one worthy of having that information or agenda. We see lack of transparency on this issue.

Despite that, we have an understanding that there is still good reason to maintain our presese in Somalia. The situation in Somalia has direct implications on the national interest of Ethiopia, the Horn region and the international community to a certain extent. But we cannot make our stay in Somalia an open-ended one. The actors in Somalia must be pressured to carry out their responsibilities. Otherwise Ethiopia must lay out in no uncertain terms its exit strategy. In this regard, I don't believe the PM gave us a satisfactory answer.

Despite the PM's rhetoric, the international media assert that the only reason Ethiopia didn't withdraw its forces is that it can't afford to, as the weak transitional government will crumble. What is your reading of the situation?

The war has great economic cost. Our people are suffering from a rising cost of living. Whatever money we spend there is costly for as. On the other hand, withdrawing from Somalia hastily could hurt us. It would be nice if the internationally recognized Somali government is strengthened and can defend itself.

There are two conditions for our withdrawal. One is the strengthening of the transitional government. The second is that not only Ethiopia but the international community must also help the transitional government to strengthen itself.

The dilemma is that the government is too weak, and the international community is not extending the necessary support. The question is, "When will the conditions be fulfilled?"

We have a reason to ask what conditions must be fulfilled for our withdrawal. Ethiopia must openly tell the world the conditions that must be fulfilled in Somalia. And if those conditions are not met, then Ethiopia must notify the international community it will withdraw from Somalia. This message must be given formally to the Somali government and the international community.

Ethiopia didn't ask for permission from the international community to go into Somalia. So why should the international community feel obliged to assist either Somalia's government or Ethiopian forces stationed there? Didn't you consider this possibility when you (EDUP-Medhin) gave your support in December 2006 for the mission into Somalia?

What we thought about at the time was the danger Ethiopia was facing. We supported Ethiopia's government to legally defend itself. The thinking was that the Ethiopian army will withdraw from Somalia immediately after it accomplished its mission. That's why we supported the motion to go into Somalia.

However, days became weeks, and weeks became months and now years. We raised our concern repeatedly that the Ethiopian army is staying in Somalia more than necessary. And even if the need arises, we demand that we discuss it in parliament. There is no such thing as an open-ended mission. There must be an exit strategy. We can't wait indefinitely for the African Union to send peacekeepers. We can't be stuck there for a very long period of time.

As for the international community's obligation to help Ethiopia, we think the problem in Somalia has a regional and international aspect. The world has been talking about it over the past fifteen years. Now that a Somali government has been established, it must get all the help it can get in order for it to bring stability.

Although the international community didn't openly support Ethiopia's move, no country has opposed Ethiopia's mission in Somali. This shows that Ethiopia had a valid reason to go into Somalia.

There was no consensus in parliament by all sides when the government was seeking parliament's approval to go to Somalia as the extreme forces there posed "clear and present danger" to Ethiopia. What is your understanding of "clear and present danger?"

The question was controversial. We believe that there was clear and present danger to the security of Ethiopia at the time from the extreme forces. The extreme forces had already declared jihad against Ethiopia. One can argue that as long as the extremists didn't take any further action, it was no serious threat. But it was more than that.

There was evidence that outside forces were helping these extreme forces. The evidence did not come from Ethiopia only. The UN Security Council also presented evidence. Around 9-10 countries were providing support to the union of Islamic Courts (UIC). Eritrea was also involved in a proxy war against Ethiopia by heavily aiding the UIC.

The UIC was also claiming the Ogaden region, posing a threat to Ethiopia's territorial integrity. So if these extreme forces were allowed to further strengthen themselves, there is no doubt that they would later pose a much more serious threat.

Those who oppose Ethiopia's incursion into Somalia had argued that these extreme forces did not pose a serious threat. But after Ethiopia's army went there, it became obvious that this extreme group has a formidable force. Despite that they are asking for Ethiopia's immediate withdrawal. Had it been a weak force, it should have been easily dispersed. But it is not. There are others behind it. On one hand, the opposition say UIC is not a threat. On the other hand, they argued that Ethiopia should not be bogged down in Somalia's endless problem. This is confusing. For us, there was no confusion that this force could pose a real threat to Ethiopia.

Forces like the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) that are supported by Eritrea killed nine Chinese oil workers and more than 60 Ethiopians. Eritrea is also involved in a proxy war through other groups. If, tomorrow, there is a motion in parliament that says Eritrea poses "clear and present danger" to Ethiopia (just like the UIC in Somalia) and Ethiopia's army should go there, would you support that?

The two case are different. If the motion is tabled on the floor, we will decide then. But I can't say we will support such a motion now, or we will reject it.

Let me put a clear scenario. What if Eritrea threatens the trade route via Djibouti?

That is a question of national interest. We have to defend that route.

Some are concerned that Ethiopia's territory might be ceded to Sudan while the PM said that the government rather will return the land occupied by Ethiopia to Sudan. Have you made an inquiry into this issue?

When the issue recently became a hot topic, we tried to see what the picture is. What we found out was no different than what the prime minister said. There is no evidence that led us to believe that land was ceded to the Sudan.

But the public is agitated. What can one do to assuage the fear?

When the rumous first surfaced, government should have clarified the issue before it went any further. That is one weakness of the government. If the PM's explanation were given earlier, we would have a diffent picture right now.

Do you think the government is doing its level best to stabilize the inflation, and bring the rapidly rising cost of living down to an acceptable level?

We have been arguing about this for two years. When the PM was presenting the report on the state of the economy not long ago, we said that the measures being taken by the government were not enough and would not solve the problem. In short we equated the problem facing the national economy to "hypertension". It cannot be held at bay with small measures. In fact, if it is not treated properly, it might threaten the entire economy.

The PM ridiculed our anxiety. PM Meles reduced the economy's problem from hypertension to a common cold. But since then, the problem has been intensifying. The source of the problem can be attributed to many factors. You can't solve it by a single measure or few directives.

The Government argued that after harvest time the problem would be solved. It was not. Then they said, if there is control on traders the problem would go away. The problem still lingers.

We need to debate about it. But what we see the government doing is to bring its so-called experts on TV and blame it all on global factors.

Government announced its decision to dump up to 1.5 million quintals of grain on to the market in order to bring down prices. Could that be a solution?

It can stabilize the price hike to a certain extent. But it can also bring along other problems. First, we have to see that such a price hike occurred against the back-drop of bumper harvest. You can go to any grain market and buy if you can afford the price. There is no shortage of grain.

According to government reports, for the last five years, grain production picked up because of good rain. You just can not solve price inflation by dumping imported grain while there is high production of grain here. The farmers will be seriously hurt. The price that the farmers are demanding for their crops is not an unreasonable one. There are a lot of inputs for the production. Farmers must at least cover the production cost. Otherwise, they will be in problem.

You have to look for ways to enhance the income of consumers so that they can afford to buy from farmers, not under-sell the formers.

Some time back, you called for salary increment. But the government feared it would worsen the inflation?

Salary increment is not a solution by itself. But it can be part of the solution. When we first proposed salary increase, we also proposed other measures. First, salary increment must be made. Second, there should be subsidies. Third, government controlled basic service like water, electric power and telephone, must be subsidized, i.e. the rate of charges must be reduced. These services are now charging more and more. Water and electricity must be provided at lower rates. The institutions providing these services are highly profitable.

In the first place, the reason for the government to retain monopoly over electricity, water and telephone services is so that it can provide the people with reduced price. But right now they are not serving the purpose for which the government retains its monopoly over them. For instance, the cement factory is a government-owned development enterprise. It was supposed to provide cement at affordable price. But the enterprise is charging more and more like any profitable private business firm. Cement is a very basic commodity. The enterprise is expected to net around 500 million birr profit.

Government-owned state monopolies should give up some of their profits and provide service to the public at affordable price. I don't say they should work at a loss. But at least they can give up some of their excessive profit. The fact that they recently started to charge more and more, indeed, contributed to the inflation and rising cost of living.

The other point we raised has monitory aspect. There is excess currency circulating in the market. This excess currency is injected into the market by both the private sector and government. The Government is spending a lot of money on development activities such as building roads and others. Whenever such problems occur, government should slow the pace of development activities. This is needed to stabilize the economy and insure sustainability of development. This was also proposed by international financial institutes. But The government rejected this. Why? I think the government is making development issue a political weapon. This is dangerous. All the gains so far attained could be threatened. The development you want to acquire in five years could be brought about in six or seven years, and yet make it sustainable. This is the right thing to do. If inflation spirals out of control, all the gains so far will be meaningless.

We first proposed salary increase. Government rejected it at first. But after two weeks, there was salary increment. Another PM, Ato Bulcha, proposed importing grain. It was rejected at first. But a few weeks later, it is going to be implemented. Such kind of outlook is wrong. Government should listen to others' opinion.

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