By Anthony Nyong

Media around the world are awash with stories of climate change, which has become the buzzword in almost every contemporary discourse.

Several development agencies are actively engaged in programming for climate change. Even faith-based organizations are not left out of the climate change discussion. Experts have at various times declared climate change the greatest human tragedy in history, and the greatest market failure the world has ever seen. Many people consider it worse than the current threat of terrorism that is plaguing the world.

Few issues have so captivated - or polarized - scientists in recent times as the issue of climate. A long debate over the causes and potential impacts of climate change rages between those termed "climate alarmists" and those labelled "climate sceptics". It is also an issue that has set developing nations against most developed ones. The developing nations have accused the industrialized countries of causing global warming without accepting the moral responsibility to clean up their acts within the shortest possible time.

Where does Africa feature in all this discourse on climate change? What does it mean to us? What are the potential and possible threats of the phenomenon and its impacts on the continent? 

The Facts of the Matter

I believe that climate change is real and we need to pay close attention to it. The United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed this and also that humans are largely responsible for the phenomenon. Since the industrial revolution began in 1750, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 34%, atmospheric CH4 has increased by 154% and atmospheric N2O has increased by 22%. These are the so-called greenhouse gases, and scientists believe that their increased concentrations are related to industrial activity and have led to unprecedented global increases in temperature, particularly over the last 50 years.

Observational records show that the continent of Africa became increasingly warmer through the twentieth century, and by 2000 was warming at a rate of about 0.060C per decade. The five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988. Now several climate-change experts are forecasting that, globally, 2007 will be the warmest year on record, with fierce weather patterns that will bring severe hardships to millions of people around the world, particularly in Africa.

While most studies, including the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, have concluded that Africa is very vulnerable to climate change, Africa's contribution to the phenomenon through greenhouse gas emissions is insignificant. When comparing the greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the typical African country with those of the typical European country, the Europeans emit roughly 50-100 times more, while the Americans emit 100-200 times more.

The question then is, should Africa be made to suffer for what it is not guilty of? The answer is obviously a resounding "NO!" It was in recognition of this that the Kyoto protocol was proposed in 1997 where ratifying industrialised countries must reduce their human-induced greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012. Major polluting countries such as the USA and Australia have refused to ratify this protocol. Others that have ratified the protocol have not shown enough commitment to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.

However, the Kyoto Protocol is .not an immediate solution to the problem of global warming. Studies have shown that even if the Kyoto emission reductions are attained, atmospheric (CO2 )will continue to increase. To stabilize (CO2 ) emissions at a level that will not cause dangerous climate change impacts, it is proposed that global per capita emissions will have to be cut by 45% by the middle of this century. The onus is on the industrialized countries to do this. The developing countries need to come together with a strong voice and with the support of the United Nations to demand this of them.

Apathy towards Climate Change² Despite the knowledge that Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change threats, many African leaders are paying scant attention to the issue of climate change in the continent. It is  very rarely addressed in our national regional policies and plans that govern even vital sectors that are very vulnerable to climate change. The reasons for this are really not that hard to understand.

Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, is already grappling with enormous development stresses and climate change is just one more problem. These stresses place a huge burden on the continent's meagre resources and African leaders would rather commit these meagre resources to solving 'immediate' development problems such as the high poverty levels, high maternal and child mortality rates, low life expectancy rates, and so on. The critical issue here would be to justify the commitment of huge resources to problems that are not caused by Africans while leaving the more immediate problems that are generally acknowledged as being at the root of Africa's under- development. True as this may seem, the modest gains that Africa has achieved in the past decade can be undermined by climate change. There is therefore need to seek ways of incorporating these threats into our development policies and plans.

Another reason for the apparent apathy by African leaders may be the general uncertainty that still seems to surround the whole issue of climate change. At the continental level, very few African scientists have carried out detailed studies to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on the continent's development. Most studies have been done by western scientists and it is understandable why some of their results should be regarded with suspicion. African scientists need to do a lot more to establish the link between climate change and the achievement of any real development within the continent. Our policy makers need good, science-based, endogenously derived evidence on which to base their policies.

Where Africa Is Vulnerable

Is climate change all about rising temperatures and sea levels?, No, it's much broader than that. These phenomena are signs and symptoms of a wide range of climate changes with potentially disastrous consequences for life on the planet. Some of these disastrous consequences are already evident in Africa, and many more are projected to occur within the next few decades.

Warmer temperatures allow mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and dengue fever to extend their ranges and increase both their biting rate and their ability to infect humans. There is evidence of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in previously unexposed highland communities, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa, where temperatures have risen during the past century. It is estimated that towards the end of this century about 80 million additional people will be at risk of malaria, and economic loss from malaria could be about US$12 billion per year. Other diseases that may become more frequent include meningitis, Rift Valley Fever, cholera, and malnutrition arising from crop failures and reduced incomes. These health outcomes will be exacerbated by Africa's current heavy health burdens, poor infrastructure and suboptimal investments in that sector. Although most African governments have policies to ensure that citizens have access to good health care, how many of these policies have incorporated additionalities from climate change?

Rain-fed agriculture forms the .mainstay of most African economies, contributing about 40% of the GDP and employing between 22% and 90% of the labour force. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and consequently on household and national economies are considerable. Projected impacts include a substantial decrease in the length of the growing season in many areas and a substantial reduction in areas that are suitable for agriculture. By 2080, an additional 70 million people will be at risk of hunger Warmer temperatures could destroy commercial fish species, even as river' flows are substantially reduced. Agricultural losses could be as high as 4% of the GDP in Central and West Africa. These impacts are sure to be exacerbated by other factors such as erosion, poor soil fertility and inefficient fanning practices.

The African continent is a rich .mosaic of ecosystems, ranging from the snow and ice fields of Kilimanjaro to the tropical rainforests of Central Africa to the Sahara and Namib deserts Observable impacts of climate on Africa's ecosystem include a 25-35km southward shift in the Sahel between 1970 and 1990, and a loss of about 5 million hectares of forest per year between 1990 and 2000, largely to forest fires.

Projections show that a significant proportion of the animals in many national parks in sub-Saharan Africa are at risk of extinction. More than 80% of Mount Kilimanjaro's ice has disappeared since 1912, with about one-third melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice is projected to disappear by 2020. .Similarly, since the 1990s, the glacier : area on the Ruwenzori Mountains has decreased by about 75%. Besides the impact on glacier-fed water supplies, .this has serious implications for tourism in countries like Kenya and Tanzania that depend significantly on : tourism industry for employment .and government revenue.

About 25% of Africa's current population is water-stressed, with the number expected to increase by 75- 250 million people by 2020. There are very high inter-annual lake fluctuations and volatility in the Africa river systems, with about a 10% reduction in run-off estimated by the middle of this century There is also correspondingly high inter-dependency where many countries share the same water basins. The surface area of Lake Chad has decreased from about 25,000 km2 in 1963 to about 1,350 km2 today. This reduction results from a combination of reduced rainfall and increased demand for water for agriculture and other human needs. Many households .in the countries that share the Lake Chad Basin have lost their livelihoods, particularly those who depended on fishing. The same sad story applies to the Lake Victoria Basin where substantial reductions in water levels have been recorded. This has negative implications for energy security in the countries that depend on the lake. Impacts of climate change on Africa's water resources could precipitate conflicts and lead to "water wars" with severe economic consequences.

Many African cities are located close to the coast. It is estimated that between 2 million and 4 million additional people will be flooded out .before the end of the century. About 30% of coastal infrastructure in Africa could be inundated by rising sea levels, leading to very significant losses in lives and livelihoods and a high cost of repairs. It is estimated that the cost of climate-related disasters in Africa over the next two decades could reach up to US$10 trillion. The case of the Mozambique. floods is still fresh in our minds.

Implications for: Economic Development

Climate change cannot be separated from Africa's development. The impacts of climate change can hinder the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals as every one of those goals is closely tied to climate. Falling agricultural output and deteriorating conditions in rural areas caused by climate change will directly increase poverty of households in poor countries, ultimately reducing the revenues of nations. On the other. hand, climate variability and change with its attendant negative consequences will increase the spending of nations, worsening their budget situation. Overall, this will affect growth rates in Africa and slower growth could cause an increase in poverty and child mortality relative to a world without climate change.

Climate models estimate that the . mean cost of climate change is predicted to be about 3% of GDP in Africa by 2100. Climate-driven reduction in GDP would increase the number of people below the US$2 a day poverty line by 2100 in Africa by about 100 million people. The consequences of this are enormous. For example, it could raise the child mortality rate, reduce access of health care and other social services, and generally worsen the quality of life of the greater proportion of Africans.

Greater resource scarcity, desertification, risks of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels could drive many millions of people to migrate - a last-resort adaptation for individuals, but one that could be very costly to them and the world. These could also precipitate international cross border conflicts and violence, as they have already done in many parts of Africa. Violence further exacerbates poverty; besides disrupting economic activities, vital financial resources needed for development are diverted to prosecuting armed conflicts.

Resources diverted by conflict away .from development are estimated at US$l billion a year in Central Africa' .and more than US$800 million in West Africa.

There is a loss of investors confidence in conflict-prone economies. As a result, there is a likely strong negative correlation between conflicts and foreign direct investment. Development assistance also suffers when major donor countries are involved in their own armed conflicts because enormous resources are channelled toward fighting them. The decline in such funds could have severe negative effects, particularly in countries that largely depend on foreign aid.

What Must We Do?

Mitigation and adaptation are the two principal ways of dealing with the threat of climate change. We can mitigate by reducing the greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, or we can adapt by preparing for and responding to changes in climate and associated threats. Because Africa contributes a very insignificant amount of the greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation should not be Africa's priority. Efforts should be made by the industrialized countries to effectively pursue mitigation efforts. The laws establishing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change place the moral burden on the industrialized nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as well as assist the developing countries adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change Several funds have been established for this. Unfortunately, many of these funds contain pledges that are yet to be fulfilled. The ones that are redeemed have clauses that make it increasingly difficult for; developing countries to take advantage of them. The industrialized nations need to do more than they are currently doing.

Many industrialized nations have' adopted the posture of providing aid to African nations to help them combat the effects of climate change. No amount of aid can climate-proof Africa and shield it from the adverse consequences of climate change. The best form of adaptation is mitigation. The onus is therefore on the developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions so that Africa can properly adapt. If this does not happen, many African countries will increasingly see climate change as an act of aggression by polluting industrialized nations, a view being shared by many African leaders.
Even if the industrialized nations were to cut their greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the Kyoto targets, sea level rise and global warming would continue to increase over centuries because of the inertia in the earth's systems. The implication is that climate change will continue to be burden to Africa. Africa also needs to rise to the challenges posed by this threat. Our policy makers need to identify that it is a current threat and not something that might happen in the future. Efforts should be made to climate- proof our development by factoring in the risks of climate change. Scientists need to do more in the area of correctly assessing our present threats and advising policy makers using science-based evidence.

Unfortunately, African economists seem to be the last group to take these .issues seriously. Until a clear link is made between climate change and Africa's economic development, I fear that policy makers will continue to shy away from it. African economists should be more involved in climate change research in Africa.

Anthony Nyong', PhD, is Senior Programme Specialist, International Development Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya.