Last Sunday by-elections and local elections were held in most part of Ethiopia. And this Sunday, sub-city and kebele administration elections will be held in all cities with the exception of Dire Dawa and Harrar, as well as by-elections for parliamentary and regional council seats in areas where they were not conducted last Sunday.

The by-elections, which are intended to fill the vacant seats not taken up by the electees of the May 2005 general elections who declined to discharge the responsibility entrusted to them, will be valid for two years until the next elections in 2010. That they are by-elections and are valid for only two years, however, does not change the fact that they are proper elections. Nor does it detract from their stature.

In fact, these elections convey an important message to the public, political parties and the international community as well.

In so far as the public is concerned, will the local elections and by-elections be an opportunity for it to reward the parties which refused to take up the seats they were elected to in the 2005 elections by electing them again or to punish them for failing to respect and value the votes it gave them last time by denying them its vote this time round?

In Ghana, the electorate punished the party which refused to join parliament despite winning a substantial number of seats by denying its vote for the next twelve years. In Ethiopia, it is hoped that the opposition parties which had hoped that the public will support them and punish the ruling party in the by-elections and local elections will learn an enduring lesson when they realize the public has in fact punished them for not joining the parliamentary and regional or city councils they were elected to.

 This is why we say these by-elections will be a test of how much of a lesson the public has learnt. Will they prove to be a forum where the ruling EPRDF is punished or opposition parties are punished?

These elections will also be opportunities for both the ruling and opposition parties to learn lessons. They should critically evaluate themselves in terms of the outcome of the elections, in terms of whether they take them a step forward or a step backward by way of earning public acceptance or distrust. A party which lost the elections should ask itself why it lost them rather than delude itself that it is not as important as general elections.

Some of the opposition parties which have registered for the by-elections and local elections have withdrawn their candidates by citing various reasons. A party which opted to take part in the elections should not be punished on account of another party which had decided to quit them. If it happens to win the elections, the legitimacy of the result can not be put into question. And the party which withdrew from the race can not in all honesty claim that the other party emerged victorious owing to its absence. After all, withdrawing from the elections is an affirmation of defeat and not a mark of courage or wisdom.

The international community also needs to draw lessons from the by-elections. It must have a clear understanding of the condition on the ground before making any type of pronouncement. It should closely monitor the situation and avoid echoing to wholesale and unsubstantiated accusations that the elections were neither free nor fair. It needs to first ask how the alleged irregularities occurred and there is any evidence which back up the accusation, what efforts the parties levelling the accusations had made and what their strengths and weaknesses are, how the victorious party managed to come out on top etc. They must present a balanced, responsible and constructive assessment of the elections and refrain from acting as the mouthpiece of one side only.  

The negative role that the likes of Ana Gomes played in the 2005 elections will be remembered by posterity.

The result of by-elections and local elections will have different implications for the contesting parties. If the ruling EPRDF wins them, it will further consolidate its power. But even if opposition parties emerge victorious, it will not make that much difference at the federal or regional level since the EPRDF still controls the majority of the seats in parliament and most regional councils. It will make a difference when coming to Addis Ababa as they will have the power to take over the city's administration. This said, however, the EPRDF could still win in sub-city and Kebele administration council elections even though the city council is controlled by opposition parties. If the EPRDF manages to take grip of the city council, it will have total control over the city's administration. Another possible scenario is for both the EPRDF and opposition parties to win a certain number of seats in the city council and the party/parties having the majority seats forming the city government. In this case, what will be remembered in history is the irony that the party which made a clean sweep of all the city council seats in the 2005 elections is now vying for certain seats in this by-election. Nonetheless the very fact that it took part in the elections is a positive step.

The party which will take over the administration of Addis Ababa needs to understand that it has its work cut out in the areas of security, justice, development and the like. Addis is undergoing an unprecedented construction boom and growth in order development endeavors; it has become Africa's hub for many activities and decisions concerning the continent. In view of this, the party which wins Addis Ababa must possess the capacity to accelerate the city's growth sustainably.